Open-weight models

How fast are open-weight models catching up?

Once a capability appears in a downloadable model, it cannot be withdrawn. The gap is one measure of lead time.

Published gap ranges (months behind frontier)

Bars show the published range. Labels are as reported; we do not place undated estimates on a time axis.

General · Dec 2025 report

4 to 8 months

Caveat: Based on external benchmarks. The future trajectory is uncertain.

Cyber · Most of 2025

6 to 10 months

Caveat: Reported retrospectively in the Jul 2026 post. Range results are weaker evidence than narrow tasks.

Cyber · Jul 2026

4 to 7 months

Caveat: Range results are weaker evidence than narrow tasks. Gap narrowed from 6 to 10 months.

No model pairs published yet. Pairs are added only when a primary source names both models and the lag. We do not estimate missing values.